A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
